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THE MOST EXCITING TWO MINUTES IN SPORTS — SINCE 1875

152nd Kentucky Derby 2026

$5,000,000 Purse • Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky. Neural network predictions powered by 15.8 million training samples across 5 racing disciplines. 1¼ miles on dirt. The ultimate 3-year-old classic.

Saturday, May 2, 2026 Churchill Downs • Louisville, KY 1¼ miles • Dirt • Grade 1 • 20 Runners
Time to Post — May 2, 2026 • 6:57 PM ET
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Days
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Hours
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Min
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Sec
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Prediction Locks In
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Since your last visit:
94.4%
Model AUC
15.8M
Training Samples
144
Features
5
Sports Unified
188
Champions
SHA-256
Verified
Predictions last updated: — • Hash: —
Purse
$5M
Distance
1¼ mi
Surface
Dirt
Field Size
20
Road to the Derby · G1 Preps 100-50-25-15-10 · G2 Preps 50-25-15-10-5 · Post draw Tue Apr 28, 2026 · Auto-updates from URIN backend

URIN’s Top Pick

v4.7 · Live Updating
#1 of 20
Strongest signal in field
Commandment
3yo Colt · Brad Cox · Flavien Prat · Wathnan Racing · Into Mischief
85.6
URIN Rating
8.6%
Win Probability
150
KD Points
  • Florida Derby (G1) winner March 28, 2026 — 100 KD qualifying points earned
  • Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) winner earlier in the prep season — ideal foundation
  • Brad Cox, Flavien Prat, Into Mischief — premier connections for the Classic distance
← Back to #1
Closest Historical Profile
— — profile match
Speed
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Style
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Rating
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Champion similarity computed across 144 features from 188 trained champions in 5 sports
Why URIN picked this horse
    Live Updating
    SHA-256: pre-race • locks 30 min before post
    URIN Confidence Distribution
    Every horse ranked by win probability — taller and brighter means URIN is more confident
    Pace Scenario
    Where each horse typically runs in the first quarter-mile
    Analyzing pace distribution…
    Where URIN Disagrees With The Market
    Horses URIN ranks differently from the official qualifying order
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    The Field

    URIN v4.7 · 20 Runners
    URIN vs Morning Line — Edge Indicators
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    Overlay (Value) URIN sees higher win probability than the oddsmaker
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    Underlay (Fade) URIN sees lower win probability than the oddsmaker
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    Fair Price URIN and the morning line agree within 1 point
    Morning line set by Churchill Downs oddsmaker after the post draw. Edge chips appear once morning lines publish.
    URIN’s Ranking
    Loading URIN predictions...
    Fetching v4.7 analysis from backend
    Model: URIN v4.7 · AUC 94.4% · 15.8M samples · Updates Until Lock
    Official Qualifying Field
    Loading official field...
    Sorted by Road to the Derby points
    Get URIN’s Locked Prediction Before Post Time
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    Methodology & Disclaimer

    URIN v4.7 predictions are generated by a neural network trained on 15.8 million samples across 5 racing disciplines. Predictions are probabilistic estimates based on historical performance patterns and statistical modeling. Each prediction is cryptographically locked via SHA-256 hash 30 minutes before post time.

    Important: These predictions are for informational and educational purposes only. Horse racing outcomes are inherently unpredictable. Past performance does not guarantee future results. RaceHP.ai is not a gambling service. Please participate only in legal wagering in your jurisdiction.